I’ve been keeping an eye on the COVID race for a few months now. The players I watch are all standout players: FL, TX, PA, and GA. Those are the places that have people that I know, so I watch their progress.
I remember when FL was the star, I seem to recall it was in the top 5 for a while. But PA put forth a massive effort and shot right up the charts. TX was a slow starter, but it’s been doing pretty well lately. GA has always been mediocre, which I suppose is a good thing, honestly. But FL is recently finding its mojo and is climbing in rank again. Go, FL! Obviously, no one is going to take the crown from NY, and NJ is probably always going to be second to NY (in everything), so there’s only so far you can go.
For three of my players, I watch their personal progress dashboards. Two of them, FL and TX, use the same software, so it kind of gives some equal comparison of the numbers. But in both cases, they use graphs that are misleading. Well, they aren’t if you understand the data, but for casual observers and those that don’t want to put the minimal effort into understanding, the response could be either, "this isn’t so bad", or "this is great" when the reality is neither of those sentiments.
Take a graph from FLs dashboard:
Wow, that’s impressive. Deaths are falling, and dramatically at that! This is all behind us, let’s go party!
But there is a small disclaimer below the chart, for those that care to read: "Death data often has significant delays in reporting…". That means that those low numbers in the near term are low because there’s no data yet. Those numbers will rise as time goes on, but that’s just fine, because there will be newer, lower numbers to report as time goes on as well.
Here’s a graph from TX’s dashboard.
This is just dumb design: plotting two values, one that will constantly increase, and one that will remain relatively constant on the same scale. This will have two effects. First, the number of deaths per day (in blue) looks like a really small value. And comparing 20 to 1,698 does make 20 seem very small. But as the total number grows, and it will, every day, the scale is going to eventually have to be adjusted, and the daily value is going to be insignificant.
TX does the same charting with the number of cases, with the same effects.
Maybe its incompetency that made these charts, but in the current political climate, and judging that these two states have pushed very hard to justify their reopening plans, it might not be a stretch to think this is just propaganda. The numbers don’t lie, they’re not telling you anything false. It’s just being presented in a way that looks most favorable.
Where It’s Going
On: https://akcaggiano.com/2020/11/10/cruel-to-be-kind/
Usually, I use the Commentary category for news stories, but when I was writing a comment on this blog post, I decided I had more to say about the situation and making my own post might be more appropriate.
To summarize: After having been verbally, emotionally, and physically abused by the former president and his followers, we’re now asked to simply forgive and forget. The answer to both of those requests is "no." Anyone that didn’t see a problem with what has been done over the last years has a serious problem. Anyone that says the alternative would have be worse, or says that the president-elect is going to make it worse has a serious problem.
If we are not actually living in the "end times", which I’m not going to completely dismiss, a lot of people act as if there is nothing left to lose. For example, a see a lot of posts about gender or sexuality rights. And because "liberals" are coming into power, we’re all going to be homosexual now. Hyperbolic and hysterical, yes, but here’s the point. For some people, this is so important, that they would vote the incumbent back in solely because of that. There are other similar reasons people have for the same action. I’ll admit, there may be a case I would do something like that, but for a different cause.
The difference with me, and I would assume other rational people, is there is a level of risk/reward assessment. To get what you want, how much do you have to give up? And for these irrational people, it seems they would give up everyone’s everything for their one thing. And they would suffer for it as well, despite the win – a Pyrrhic victory. There’s no consideration to postpone that fight for 4 years and try again in better circumstances. It’s tunnel vision. Anyone who voted JoJo or Kayne, this is the one time to not be supporting 3rd party. This one is too important. But thank you anyway for pulling those votes.
Now, the point I really wanted to make in response to the post is: we’re nowhere near out of the woods on this.
There is a book from which I read an excerpt, and now there’s so many similar books there’s no way for me to find out which it was so I can link it, that discussed how Germany became Nazi Germany. I distilled the information from that into a single statement to commit to memory, "Hitler comes later."
The point of that warning is that in Germany, there was a pre-Nazi leader who sparked the nationalistic views of the people. He didn’t get very far, but the future Nazi party took note of how dedicated and passionate those supporters were. The party then turned it up to 11 and viola, Hitler.
So while there may currently seem to be a glimmer of hope that civility can return, this is the time to be even more vigilant (and god, I hate that word). I am certain the fanaticism has not gone unnoticed and can and will be exploited.
If I had to hazard a guess, it will be Jr. He’s young, charismatic, and carries the family name. He’s got a partner from the media that has been successfully grooming him for presentation. So far I haven’t heard of him speaking his own ideas, only parroting his father’s, but watch out if the tone changes and he starts instigating things himself.
We have 4 years to prepare for this. Do not forgive and do not forget.