I’ve kept my mouth relatively shut for the last few years on this topic, but I’ve been thinking a lot about this specific thing and I felt I should get it out and in writing before I either forget it or it becomes irrelevant. Hopefully the latter happens first.
There’s this guy you have heard of, Donald Trump. Without really saying how I feel about him, I just want to explain this thing he does that is so dangerous. I know it’s way too late to change anyone’s minds for the upcoming election. And I rather doubt anyone under his sway will actually have their eyes opened by this explanation, but it never hurts to try.
There are countless examples of people parodying a Trump response to a question. A lot of them are spot on, usually rather funny, and also sad in their accuracy. I think a lot of people focus on the rambling, delusional aspects of the responses, which is a mistake. I don’t think Trump is stupid, like mentally stupid. He does things very intentionally.
I’ve read some analysis of his verbalisms, but nothing that really focuses on what is really trying to be accomplished with them. The best thing I have read is that he uses a long string of phrases that don’t really form a cohesive statement, but each one has a small nugget of something you want to hear and those pieces are what you focus on and ignore the rest. That way, everyone gets something of what they want out of the spew. That is probably accurate, but I have another observation, and I’ll provide a very simple, commonplace example. It’s believable, for sure, and when you see that technique can be applied to just about any question, hopefully you’ll never listen to his answers the same way again.
Here’s the hypothetical journalist question and Trump’s answer:
"Meteorologists are saying it’s not going to rain tomorrow. Do you think it’s going to rain?"
"Absolutely! 100%! It absolutely will rain. They say it’s not going to rain. They went to school for years and years and have all these degrees and they say it’s not going to rain. It should rain! Don’t you think? That would be beautiful. We need the rain. You know, all that school, all that, they don’t know. They say it won’t rain. Maybe it won’t. But it should rain. I’m sure it will. And that will be great for everyone. It would be a real shame if it didn’t. It would be bad for everyone."
And what do people get out of this babble? If it doesn’t rain, they get mad at the scientists because it should have rained. That was the right answer even though science says it won’t happen. The question was asking for a simple opinion and what we’re given is a statement on how we should feel about it. "It" being one specific viewpoint. In this case and in many cases, the viewpoint is in opposition to the scientific facts.
I have read many times that conservatives are not driven by logic, but by emotion. Not only in political topics, but in their entire lives. If it feels correct, it is correct. The problem with that is it is much easier to make someone feel a certain way than it is to make them think and understand a certain way. And that is what Trump (and many other con men) can exploit.
Let’s break down that long answer to the question.
- "Absolutely! 100%! It absolutely will rain." – Start off with complete confidence and speak in absolutes. There is no place for disagreement here.
- "They say it’s not going to rain. They went to school for years and years and have all these degrees and they say it’s not going to rain." – Attack the opposition. Even though they are correct, they need to be painted as the bad guys. Vagueness – using They and Other People – is perfectly fine. Be specific if you can, but an unknown enemy has advantages as well.
- "It should rain! Don’t you think? That would be beautiful. We need the rain." – Why should we hate the experts? Explain it. Exploit feelings. You need to feel why you should be angry.
- "You know, all that school, all that, they don’t know. They say it won’t rain." – While people are agreeing with the good things you said, say something bad about your opponent. Your mind is still saying "yes" and that "yes" will continue into the next statement. This is actually a well-known sales tactic. They get you to agree to anything ("It’s hot out today"), then carry that agreement into further conversation.
- "Maybe it won’t." – This has two excellent benefits. You get an out if you’re wrong, because you can say you never said absolutely, and you inject a feeling of disappointment if the experts are right.
- "But it should rain. I’m sure it will. And that will be great for everyone. It would be a real shame if it didn’t. It would be bad for everyone." – Don’t focus on your backpedalling, focus on the benefits of your answer, despite the fact you are wrong.
To summarize: Make your claim, attack your opponent, appeal to your audience, use agreement against your opponent, suggest you might be wrong – but that would be bad, restate your claim with the benefits.
If you don’t want to absorb all of these bits, at least take this: If you hear someone making a speech and they ask a question that sounds like it should be rhetorical, go on alert. They are trying to create agreement between something obvious and something you need to be convinced of.
Where It’s Going
On: https://akcaggiano.com/2020/11/10/cruel-to-be-kind/
Usually, I use the Commentary category for news stories, but when I was writing a comment on this blog post, I decided I had more to say about the situation and making my own post might be more appropriate.
To summarize: After having been verbally, emotionally, and physically abused by the former president and his followers, we’re now asked to simply forgive and forget. The answer to both of those requests is "no." Anyone that didn’t see a problem with what has been done over the last years has a serious problem. Anyone that says the alternative would have be worse, or says that the president-elect is going to make it worse has a serious problem.
If we are not actually living in the "end times", which I’m not going to completely dismiss, a lot of people act as if there is nothing left to lose. For example, a see a lot of posts about gender or sexuality rights. And because "liberals" are coming into power, we’re all going to be homosexual now. Hyperbolic and hysterical, yes, but here’s the point. For some people, this is so important, that they would vote the incumbent back in solely because of that. There are other similar reasons people have for the same action. I’ll admit, there may be a case I would do something like that, but for a different cause.
The difference with me, and I would assume other rational people, is there is a level of risk/reward assessment. To get what you want, how much do you have to give up? And for these irrational people, it seems they would give up everyone’s everything for their one thing. And they would suffer for it as well, despite the win – a Pyrrhic victory. There’s no consideration to postpone that fight for 4 years and try again in better circumstances. It’s tunnel vision. Anyone who voted JoJo or Kayne, this is the one time to not be supporting 3rd party. This one is too important. But thank you anyway for pulling those votes.
Now, the point I really wanted to make in response to the post is: we’re nowhere near out of the woods on this.
There is a book from which I read an excerpt, and now there’s so many similar books there’s no way for me to find out which it was so I can link it, that discussed how Germany became Nazi Germany. I distilled the information from that into a single statement to commit to memory, "Hitler comes later."
The point of that warning is that in Germany, there was a pre-Nazi leader who sparked the nationalistic views of the people. He didn’t get very far, but the future Nazi party took note of how dedicated and passionate those supporters were. The party then turned it up to 11 and viola, Hitler.
So while there may currently seem to be a glimmer of hope that civility can return, this is the time to be even more vigilant (and god, I hate that word). I am certain the fanaticism has not gone unnoticed and can and will be exploited.
If I had to hazard a guess, it will be Jr. He’s young, charismatic, and carries the family name. He’s got a partner from the media that has been successfully grooming him for presentation. So far I haven’t heard of him speaking his own ideas, only parroting his father’s, but watch out if the tone changes and he starts instigating things himself.
We have 4 years to prepare for this. Do not forgive and do not forget.